The “Knocking on Wood” Wikipedia page mentions Roud’s conclusion, and this claim of a 19th century origin has circulated online as the final say on the matter. If you go back to the original, though, Roud’s proposal actually ends on an ambivalent note: “Before this theory [of 19th century origins] can be finally accepted, however, an examination of the history of European forms of this custom would be advisable.”
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Negative net migration hasn’t definitively happened in the U.S. for almost a century, not since the Great Depression. The U.S. native-born population is also in free fall, well below the replacement rate needed to maintain population numbers in the long run. With fewer immigrant arrivals already dealing a blow to the workforce, the shrinkage of the American taxpayer base is set to further widen the country’s deficit and hurt its prospects for economic growth.